Today there seems to be more division than ever amongst our society, and specifically I’ll talk about the US here, though these concepts more broad apply worldwide.
The big question is why? Why are we so divided? I’m convinced it is largely due to disinformation and propaganda, where we understand reality differently than it actually is. In other words, if I understood the situation as you did, I would believe as you do. But because I understand it to be different, I believe differently. I think this applies to lots of things, but especially in politics where there are major deliberate propaganda campaigns on both sides which cloud our view of really what is going on. Additionally, some concepts are more nuanced and complicated, and require understanding beyond just preaching about how change will happen and capturing peoples emotions.
My effort here is to share my current understanding and I’m open to anyone who reads this to comment or reach out to continue the discussion of where my understanding may be clouded.
I’d like to go through some of the main points of confusion in effort to clear up the confusion and bridge the gap between those who agree with my perspective and those who don’t. After all, all we have is communication. If we aren’t willing to openly talk about what we think and why we think it, we never can bond or share a mutual understanding of the country, or of reality as we understand it. It seems many people on the left won’t talk to people who support Trump and many people on the right won’t talk to people who support Harris – but that is the opposite of what we should be doing.
It is currently September, 2024, and Biden/Harris have been president/vice president for the last 4 years. The glaring first question is, do you feel the country is better now than it was 4 years ago? Biden/Harris has been in charge, and Harris is running again for another 4 years.
Lets start with the fundamentals…
What is government?
The age old debate is around how big/small the government should be and how much power it should have. But firstly, we should define what it is. The government is an entity thats job is to serve the public, the people who elected the people into government and into power. The job of the government is to ensure civility and ensure that society functions and that the market works. This means some regulation and protection to ensure the public is served safely and fairly. The government is funded by the public – that is to say that a portion of your earned money is taken from you (taxes) to pay for the mandatory government expenses. This all makes sense, assuming that the government is doing its job in that a) it is serving the public and society is functioning well, and b) the hard earned money that is taken to fund the government (taxes) is spent wisely and efficiently. If a or b aren’t done, the government is failing at its job, by definition.
If you look throughout the last 100 years, the government has ballooned, from $567 million (~$20 billion in todays dollars) in 1900 to over $6 trillion in 2024. A brief history:
- In 1900 there was no federal income taxes, federal revenues were generated from customs/tariffs and from excise taxes on goods like alcohol and tobacco.
- It wasn’t until 1913 when the 16th amendment was implemented to create federal income tax. The tax rate was 1% on income and tiered up to 6% for the highest earners. Contrast this to today where the highest bracket is 37%.
One of the fundamental issues with government is that it is inefficient – that is to say that because it has no competition to improve or oversight to be frugal, it almost always overspends and is inefficient. Because of this fundamental of pretty much all governments worldwide, it is important that the government stays small, has oversight to ensure spending to properly done, and that the budget is balanced. Compare that to a business where there is competition and it has to make profit to survive, it means businesses need to be very efficient with spending to ensure the survival of the business.
What we’ve seen over the last 15 years is a rapid increase in spending, and a massive deficit that is getting far out of hand (see below).
Here are the biggest misunderstandings between the left in the right in the US in my opinion:
Government debt –
The US is currently $35 trillion in debt, with the interest payments (~$1 trillion/year) alone surpassing the department of defense budget ($858 billion in 2023). We have to cut government spending at all costs and reduce the size of government or else America goes bankrupt. History shows us we’d end up like Argentina, which went from one of the richest to one of the poorest countries in the world in just a few decades. You can’t just raise taxes to pay this off, it is required spending is cut. Currently the government is spending way beyond what it brings in and getting worse. Here is the government debt plotted over time:
And here is the government spending by year for the last few years:
- 2017: Federal Spending: $3.98 trillion, Federal Revenue: $3.32 trillion, Deficit: $0.66 trillion
- 2018: Federal Spending: $4.11 trillion, Federal Revenue: $3.33 trillion, Deficit: $0.78 trillion
- 2019: Federal Spending: $4.45 trillion, Federal Revenue: $3.46 trillion, Deficit: $0.99 trillion
- 2020: Federal Spending: $6.55 trillion, Federal Revenue: $3.42 trillion, Deficit: $3.13 trillion
- 2021: Federal Spending: $6.82 trillion, Federal Revenue: $4.05 trillion, Deficit: $2.77 trillion
- 2022: Federal Spending: $6.27 trillion, Federal Revenue: $4.90 trillion, Deficit: $1.37 trillion
- 2023: Federal Spending: $6.41 trillion, Federal Revenue: $4.71 trillion, Deficit: $1.70 trillion
As you can see, spending is way over budget even though revenues have soared. Taxes are effectively taking a portion of hard earned money and giving it to the government to serve us, the public and the society. Currently, they don’t seem to be serving us well, and are spending our money very poorly. Notice in 2023 they spent $1.70 trillion over budget, even though they brought in almost $5 trillion dollars in revenue, which is nearly double the revenue from just a decade ago. To put it into perspective, the debt is increasing by about $10 billion a day in 2024 – completely unsustainable spending. This is probably the biggest issue in the USA and if spending can’t be cut, everything will fail, including the banks. This is a major issue that many people seem unaware of, but is well worth noting and understanding.
Immigration –
I’m very pro-immigration and allowing anyone hard working to come into the US. But it needs to be done legally and through an efficient system created by the government. We can’t just open the border to allow anyone to come through when my wife has to go through months of interviews to move to the US. It isn’t fair or legal, nor does America have the system to support it financially or otherwise. If you look at the official numbers on the official Customs and Border website here are the recorded numbers:
- 2017: 415,000
- 2018: 521,000
- 2019: 977,000
- 2020: 646,000
- 2021: 1.956 million
- 2022: 2.76 million
- 2023: 3.20 million
- 2024: 2.6 million (through July so far, will definitely surpass 2023)
As you see, it has gone up rapidly in the last 4 years. Note that these are simply recording incidents of illegal immigration, and it is estimated that roughly 50% aren’t recorded. Then means over the last 7-8 years, upwards of 20 million people have crossed into the US illegally. To put that into perspective, that is 4x the population of Colorado, and roughly the entire size of New York City. The only way to say this isn’t a problem is to be unaware of it, which seemingly half of the US is. There is no where for these people to go to integrate into society, pay taxes, etc. And governments don’t have the money to support them (see point above). As a result, cities are struggling to find housing, pay for the care, and integrate them. This is a massive failing of the government, which is their job to fix and ensure this doesn’t happen (as with every government in the world having the same responsibility for the countries they serve).
Taxes –
There is a common misconception that the rich don’t pay taxes. On the official government website, the top 10% of earners pay 75% of all federal income tax. The top 1% of federal income earners pay nearly 50%. The wealthiest pay most of the taxes contrary to what most think. But percentage isn’t even a good metric as the rich make most of their money off capital gains, which is taxed differently, and many of the rich don’t have income (like Steve Jobs famously paying himself $1 a year). So we should talk absolute amount paid in instead.
Comparing percentages is like apples to oranges because wealth can be earned tons of different ways than just income, and all ways are taxed at different rates. You have to tax capital gains differently than income, as there are many ways to earn money through work, investment, business, etc. Therefore, we need to talk absolute numbers, not percentages. And when we look at the numbers, the rich fund the entire government through taxes. The lowest 50% pay 3% of all federal income tax. This is fine and I’m not against it, but to say the “rich need to pay their fair share” is disinformation as the rich already pay the overwhelming majority of taxes in the US. Again, going on point one, we need to cut spending immediately, which means if we cut spending, we get a surplus and have the capital then invest into other things. If we raise revenue (raise taxes) before we cut spending, it makes no logical sense and we end up with the same problem.
Inflation –
There is a lot of talk about inflation and some disinformation about it. Many believe it is corporate greed driving prices up, but that is a fallacy. What causes inflation? Inflation is where the value of a dollar goes down, meaning your spending power of $100 drops. In 2020 when Covid started, the government locked down businesses and cities. Because of this, they had to give stimulus or else every business would fire all their employees and go under. When the stimulus is given without actual product or services, there is an increased supply of money for less goods/services, which means inflation goes up (prices rise for the same goods/services).
Additionally, because of the global lockdowns, supply chains got disrupted (the market) which made prices go up. For example, if only 1 shipping company operates instead of 5, there is no competition and it can raise prices. Competition (the market) drives prices down as companies compete for value vs. cost all the time in a market, which is important.
The combination of increased money supply and disruption of the market is what led to inflation going up to 8-10%, which was entirely predictable. If you have 10% inflation for 2 years, you have > 20% inflation over 2 years, which means $100 has spending power of $80 and so on. In short, inflation is caused by increasing money supply and the reason prices are way higher now than 5 years ago is due to government policies which increased money supply. It is not corporate greed and this is a disinformation.
To put another way:
The rise in prices (inflation) is caused by government overspending, which increases the amount of money faster than the increase in goods & services output. That is the vast majority of the problem.
Inflation was particularly bad during the Covid years, as there was massive government spending, despite productivity plunging, as people were forced to stay home.
This is further exacerbated by excess regulation, which prevents the market from solving an unmet need (eg housing in high-demand areas). Occasionally, there is monopolistic behavior by companies, but this is relatively rare and usually only possible if those companies have gained control of their industry regulator. Again, a government, not private sector, problem.
The Constitution –
Republicans want to protect the founding fathers America and the American constitution that was designed to protect powers and has worked well for America so far. It is what has separated America from most other countries in the world, and should be protected with care. Things like freedom of speech are vital to a free, open society. Freedom of speech means someone you hate can still say something you disagree with and it is legal and allowed. Censorship is anything that goes beyond the laws that govern freedom of speech. Currently this a major movement to censor people and places, like Youtube taking down videos they disagree with, or people wanting to arrest Elon Musk for running X as a free speech platform. In short, the Republicans simply want America left to the same rights as 20-30 years ago. There seems to be a misunderstanding on this point.
Abortion –
It’s a touchy subject and I’m pro-choice entirely. Trump has repeatedly said there would be no national ban but the decision would go to the states instead of the federal government (which was overturning Roe v. Wade). In general, the federal government should give more power to the states so they can govern how they wish – that is to say govern how the people that live in that state vote. For example, legalization of weed in Colorado but federally illegal leads to strange conflicts when the decision should just defer to the state.
I’m all for moving more power from the federal government and into the states to give more control to the people that live in each state. For people who want an abortion, the majority of the states support it so the option will be available. There are 2 sides to the coin so it is only fair different states get their way based on their own beliefs. Even though we don’t agree, in America we can let people freely choose based on their own beliefs.
The role of the government is to lead the nation and ensure the system works – ensure crime is low and people abide by the laws, education and health is good, budget is balanced, and the society flourishes. If the society isn’t functioning well, crime goes up, people are unhappy and unhealthy, and civility breaks down – it is a failing of the government. Again, I’d like to ask the question to you as a reader – is America better today in 2024 than it was say 4 or 8 years ago?
Voting fraud –
It is impossible to say there is vote fraud, but there is a significant incentive for foreign adversaries or powers that be within the US to manipulate and modify the actual vote of the people. This exists in many countries throughout the world. We need to ensure we have a robust voting system that ensure there is not voter fraud, and if there is any suspicious voting or fraud possibilities, we should talk about them. We should not assume there isn’t fraud, because there very well could be, We need to ensure voting integrity is of the upmost importance of if there are any red flags, we need to raise awareness about them and get to the bottom of it. There is certainly the possibility of fraud and we need to protect against it at all costs. This video explains one way to think about it.
Because disinformation is a major problem as I’ve presented here, I’ve have tried to clear up some of the confusion in effort to bridge the understanding gap. If you watch one channel like CNN you get clips of Trump taken out of context, and if you watch Fox, you get clips of Biden/Harris taken out of context. As a result, it is vital to go to the actual source and watch the interview/video in full.
You can go on Youtube and type in “Kamala Harris interview”, “Joe Biden interview”, or “Donald Trump interview” or “Elon Musk interview”. I’d encourage anyone from both sides to watch full interviews with people that you disagree with and see their true character. Most of the time because things are taken out of context, and you get a bigger and better picture of the person than what the media clips, often a completely opposite view. Watch or listen to an hour long interview with Trump or Musk or Biden or Harris, or ideally, all of them. You’ll definitely get a more realistic view of who they are and what they think. If you haven’t done this, you’re almost guaranteed getting hit with disinformation and propaganda on both sides, which is causing divide amongst us.
On that point, it’s surprising how many people I’ve met who say that Twitter is way worse since Musk acquired it. Yet every person that says this has never used it. The anti-Musk propaganda is incredible and effective. As is pretty much all other propaganda (on left and right). It is like saying a book is bad but you never opened it. I’d encourage you to use X/Twitter and see for yourself – read the book.
It is obviously better in every way since he bought it, and usage is at an all time high. To say otherwise is ridiculous, to anyone who uses it, it is clearly improved. It is faster, more slim, more features, more useful, etc. I’ve used Twitter since 2008 and it has been an incredible resource to not only connect with a lot of interesting people, but to learn from people who share links/ideas. When Musk bought it, most investors were for it due to the 15% premium and the fact that Musk has a remarkable track record with creating companies – Paypal, Tesla, SpaceX, solar city, to name a few. He has done an incredible job with X so far – and the vast majority of people who actually use it would say the same. Regardless of what you think of Musk or where you are politically, give it a try for yourself. Open and read the book before you criticize it.
Again, if you’ve only watched a clip or heard what CNN said about Musk, it is propaganda. Go straight to the source and use the platform to judge for yourself, or watch the original uncut interviews.
The amount of fighting and hatred throughout history, and even now, that comes from politics and religion is hard to fathom. People hold strong opinions because it matters. And we tend to hang around people who share similar belief systems about life, economics, business, freedom, and equality. This is because these ideas matter, and affect each and every one of us. It not only affects us, it changes how we behave and how to observe society and the world around us.
The core philosophy underlying this is that at the deepest level as humans, all we have is our ability to communicate. If we can’t communicate, what are we doing on this planet together? Holding thoughts in your mind does little. Share your thoughts, it acts as a good error correction mechanism. However, how you communicate matters. Writing forces us to put down our thoughts in a more ordered manner, while a verbal conversation with people can go down tangent after tangent and it is quite easy to talk past each other. Like Minchin said, like hitting beautifully executed shots from opposite ends of 2 different tennis courts.
With the age of propaganda and disinformation, both sides are becoming more polarized. Given this, one solution is to listen and try to have conversation with others from the opposite side. It is hard, and often ends on which propaganda the other side watched or listened to. Is the best solution to just avoid these conversations all together? Or to share openly how you feel? It’s not an easy answer, but all we have is communication. Shutting off our voices only leads to more polarization because we then are unable to understand each other, which is exactly what is happening now.
I think it is probably best to have a conversation when both people are interested. Otherwise, vote and live life based on the values you hold. My writing here is an effort to share my understanding of what is going on, and open it up to conversation. Please reach out if anything I posted is wrong or needs to be corrected, I’m open to discussion about anything.
Regardless of what you believe, I wish you all the best in 2024 an beyond – it’s one of the most fascinating times to exist in human history.
Patrick
Latest posts by Patrick (see all)
- Politics and Divide - September 7, 2024
- The World You’re Born Into - June 29, 2024
- Becoming a Dad - June 24, 2024
- 2023 Year in Review - December 23, 2023
- Take Action - August 9, 2023
